Mentions and elections

Mention markets#

A mention market asks whether a named speaker will say a specified word or phrase during a defined event. It is different from tagging an account with @username in comments.

Choose Mentions in market navigation. Filter by speeches, earnings, podcasts, broadcasts or posts, then open an event to see its phrases. Each phrase is an independent Yes/No market: several phrases may all resolve Yes. Their percentages do not need to add up to 100%.

Before taking a position, read the speaker, event window, source and counting rules. “Inflation 3+ times” requires at least three qualifying occurrences. Replays, quotations, word forms and missing recordings depend on the published rules. A transcript count alone is not a final resolution.

Not listed means no tradeable market has been linked to that item. It is not a zero-percent quote. Dates and times in the event schedule use UTC.

Election markets#

Choose Elections to browse the world map or country list. Filter by month or office, then choose View election for the race's markets, reported results, regions and source information. US regional geography is available; other regional coverage depends on the election.

The page keeps three different quantities separate:

• Pool share: how funds in a RINO pool are split. It is not an official vote count or a guaranteed probability.
• Reported votes: vote totals from the named results source, with their status and update time.
• Population: contextual information when a reviewed population record is available. It is not turnout or the number of eligible voters.

A preliminary return can change. A called race is not necessarily certified. Corrections carry a new revision. The dashboard does not automatically settle a market: its published rules and resolution process determine the outcome.

Preview and availability#

Demo and local-chain previews label their synthetic scenarios. These are illustrations, not real election schedules, candidates or forecasts. Local-chain trade links appear only when the corresponding market is deployed.

Public events and live results require reviewed sources and listed markets. A missing quote is shown as a dash. If a feed is unavailable, previously loaded information may be out of date; check its update time and the linked source before relying on it.